基于自适应时序剖分与KNN的短时交通流量预测     

祁朵  毛政元 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(2):339-351

在智能交通系统中,准确和高效的短时交通流量预测是交通诱导、管理和控制的前提。由于交通流量动态变化中表现出的时变性和非平稳性特征,其预测难度较大,是交通领域中亟待解决的难题。为提高短时交通流量的预测精度,本文设计与实现了基于自适应时序剖分与KNN（A-TS-KNN）的短时交通流量预测算法。① 基于动态时间规整（Dynamic Time Warping,DTW）动态剖分单日时序为不同的交通模式;② 在不同交通模式,采用互信息法求解每个预测时刻时间延迟的最大阈值,构造不同时间延迟的状态向量,生成交通流量历史数据库;③ 采用十次十折交叉验证的方法求解每个时刻不同时间延迟与不同K值的正交误差结果分布,提取误差最小的正交结果,得到自适应时间延迟与K值的参数组合;④ 采用K个最相似的近邻的距离倒数加权值作为预测结果。对比K近邻（K-nearest neighbors, KNN）、支持向量回归（Support vector regression,SVR）、长短期记忆神经网络（Long-short term memory neural network,LSTM）以及门控递归单元神经网络（Gate recurrent unit neural network,GRU）共4种主流预测模型,A-TS-KNN算法预测精度显著提升;将A-TS-KNN算法用于福州市城市路网中其他交叉路口的短时交通流量预测,结果表现出良好的泛化能力。  相似文献   

基于对象流的地缘环境时空分析模型     

赵文双  江南  陈云海  曹一冰 《地球信息科学学报》2022,24(8):1432-1444

地缘环境时空分析是对地缘体、地缘关系及地缘结构进行的解析、评价和预测,是把握地缘环境空间特征、关联关系演化规律的重要途径。本文采用文献研究、类比归纳、建模研究等方法,提出地缘环境对象是地理信息世界中对现实地缘环境实体抽象后的数字化表达,地缘环境对象流是对象间物质、信息和能量数据交互过程的总称,与地缘关系间存在映射关系,对地缘环境态势和演化过程具有关键作用。在对地缘环境对象流相关概念和内涵解析的基础上,探讨了地缘环境对象流的数据表达与组织方法,构建了地缘环境分析模型,模型从地缘环境系统构成出发,将地缘环境对象流的分析逻辑和数据模型结合,分别建立地缘环境对象流分析原理的逻辑表达及地缘环境对象化数据组织体系,在数据支持下利用数据分析算法来确定地缘环境对象与地缘关系间的映射函数,实现面向应用场景和具体问题的地缘环境分析。本文对地缘环境分析模型进行了验证,以“印太地区”地缘经济环境分析为例,基于2009—2018年该区域经济水平排位前10的国家经济数据,进行了地缘经济实体特征的抽象、贸易对象流的数据表达与组织、数据分析及地缘关系测度,分析了贸易流的时空变化过程、地缘影响力以及地缘关系群组等,验证了模型在面向具体场景的地缘环境分析中的有效性。  相似文献   

基于长时间序列(1975—2020年)生态耗水的岱海动态生态需水分析          下载免费PDF全文

马佳丽  刘东伟  王杰  程英楠  刘华民  王立新 《湖泊科学》2022,34(1):207-218

生态需水是湖泊生态系统的重要指标,维持着湖泊生态系统的良性循环.以内蒙古中部半干旱湖泊岱海为研究对象,对湖泊动态生态需水进行分析.本研究在遥感和气象数据的基础上,获得1975-2020年长时间序列高精度水文要素数据,分析岱海水文要素时空演变规律;通过天然生态水深分析法、水深经验频率分析法和湖泊形态分析法分析岱海的水深随面积变化的关键水深;构建基于生态耗水规律的湖泊生态需水模型,计算自然状态下岱海生态需水动态变化范围.研究结果如下:岱海地区6-9月为丰水期,10月至次年5月为枯水期;45 a以来岱海水面面积呈显著下降趋势,近年来下降速率减缓;枯水期岱海适宜生态水深为8.72~9.92 m,丰水期为9.40~10.69 m,适宜生态需水量为5.62亿~7.71亿m³,适宜湖面面积为70.92~84.77 km².本文构建了长时间序列气候水文数据库,确定岱海动态生态需水范围可以实现对湖泊生态健康的实时监测,为相关规划与管理提供科学依据及可操作性指导,从而为岱海湖泊治理提供理论参考.  相似文献   

Dynamic response of debris flows impacting curved joint check dams     

《国际泥沙研究》2022,37(5):589-600

The dynamic impact force of debris flow on dams with a curved upstream face curved was investigated using laboratory experiments and a theoretical approach. Equations describing the impact force and maximum run-up height were derived. The experiments and theoretical considerations reveal that the impact force and maximum run-up height are mainly controlled by the Froude number (Fr) reduced by the cosine of the channel slope angle (cosα). Both the impact force and the maximum run-up height have a quadratic relation with the modified Froude number (Fr/(cosα)^0.5). The experimental data and the results of the theoretical approach are in good agreement, indicating that the theoretical approach can be used in practical applications. It is concluded that the comparison between the curved-joint dam and the more conventional sharp-joint dam shows no differences in the maximum impact force and run-up height for the same modified Froude number. With the sharp-joint dam, the peak values of the impact force are reached more quickly than with the curved-joint dam.  相似文献   

雄安新区D01井岩溶热储下伏太古界中热流测定研究          下载免费PDF全文

姚亚辉  贾小丰  李胜涛  张建伟  宋健  杨涛  岳冬冬 《中国地质》2022,49(6):1723-1731

【研究目的】目前雄安新区范围内的热流数据多测自于新近系沉积盖层及白云岩地层,对岩溶热储下伏太古界的热流测定研究还鲜见报道,主要受限于以往的地热勘查开发层位主要在1800m以浅的蓟县系岩溶热储,揭露岩溶热储下伏太古界的钻孔稀少。2018年以来,在雄安新区牛驼镇地热田实施了D01深部地热参数井,揭穿了高于庄组岩溶热储,并揭露太古界厚度达1723.67m,给该地区岩溶热储下伏太古界的热流测定研究提供了条件。【研究方法】本文基于近稳态钻孔测温及岩心热导率测试,对D01井太古界进行了热流测定及分析。【研究结果】结果表明：D01井太古界呈显著的传导型地温特征,地温梯度为18.3℃/km,相比于新近系地温梯度48.6℃/km偏低。测得25块D01井太古界片麻岩岩心样品的热导率平均值为（2.41±0.40）W/(K·m)。根据钻孔测温数据及热导率测试,计算出D01井太古界2300～2700m深度的热流值为（44.1±7.0）mW/m²。同时,估算了D01井新近系400～800m深度段的热流值为84.6mW/m²,较太古界高出40.5mW/m²。【结论】分析认为D01井新近系较太古界高出热流主要为高孔渗岩溶白云岩层中地下水侧向热对流作用以及牛东断裂地下水垂向热对流作用共同所致。研究结果对前人提出的地下水运移聚热模式及导热断裂聚热模式提供了数据支撑,对雄安新区深部地热资源成因机制和太古界地温场研究具有重要意义。  相似文献   

狭陡型泥石流成灾特征与防治对策研究——以阿坝州金川县刘家沟泥石流为例          下载免费PDF全文

崔华丽  杨东旭  杨栋  李元灵  贾逸  吴波 《探矿工程》2022,49(6):122-129

刘家沟位于四川省阿坝州金川县,是一条狭陡型高频泥石流沟,每年雨季,降雨激发泥石流灾害链。本文在野外调查和实地勘测的基础上,分析认为,受汶川MS8.0地震扰动,刘家沟形成流通区单位面积上松散固体物质达98.11×10⁴ m³,在409.8‰的平均纵坡降下,泥石流活动频率明显增强,泥石流沿程放大效应明显,最终形成了降雨+径流侵蚀-滑坡-堰塞体-堰塞体溃决-增大的泥石流-堵河形成堰塞湖-卡撒沟中、下游损害的灾害链。提出采用格宾石笼进行固坡护床,结合拦挡坝拦粗排细的作用,根据保护对象设置防护堤,优化排导槽与主河交汇条件的综合治理措施,可为小流域高频狭陡型泥石流灾害的治理提供参考。  相似文献   

Differential Thermal Regimes of the Tarim and Sichuan Basins in China: Implications for Hydrocarbon Generation and Conservation     

CHANG Jian  LI Dan  QIU Nansheng  ZHU Chuanqing  ZHONG Ningning  FENG Qianqian  ZHANG Haizu  WANG Xiang 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(4):1308-1322

The uncertainty surrounding the thermal regimes of the ultra-deep strata in the Tarim and Sichuan basins, China, is unfavorable for further hydrocarbon exploration. This study summarizes and contrasts the present-day and paleo heat flow, geothermal gradient and deep formation temperatures of the Tarim and Sichuan basins. The average heat flow of the Tarim and Sichuan basins are 42.5 ± 7.6 mW/m2 and 53.8 ± 7.6 mW/m2, respectively, reflecting the characteristics of ‘cold’ and ‘warm’ basins. The geothermal gradient with unified depths of 0–5,000 m, 0–6,000 m and 0–7,000 m in the Tarim Basin are 21.6 ± 2.9 °C/km, 20.5 ± 2.8 °C/km and 19.6 ± 2.8 °C/km, respectively, while the geothermal gradient with unified depths of 0–5,000 m, 0–6,000m and 0–7,000 m in the Sichuan Basin are 21.9 ± 2.3 °C/km, 22.1 ± 2.5 °C/km and 23.3 ± 2.4 °C/km, respectively. The differential change of the geothermal gradient between the Tarim and Sichuan basins with depth probably results from the rock thermal conductivity and heat production rate. The formation temperatures at depths of 6,000 m, 7,000 m, 8,000 m, 9,000 m and 10,000 m in the Tarim Basin are 80°C–190°C, 90°C–220°C, 100°C–230°C, 110°C–240°C and 120°C–250°C, respectively, while the formation temperatures at depths of 6,000 m, 7,000 m, 8,000 m and 9,000 m in the Sichuan Basin are 120°C–200°C, 140°C–210°C, 160°C–260°C and 180°C–280°C, respectively. The horizontal distribution pattern of the ultra-deep formation temperatures in the Tarim and Sichuan basins is mainly affected by the basement relief, fault activity and hydrothermal upwelling. The thermal modeling revealed that the paleo-heat flow in the interior of the Tarim Basin decreased since the early Cambrian with an early Permian abrupt peak, while that in the Sichuan Basin experienced three stages of steady state from Cambrian to early Permian, rapidly rising at the end of the early Permian and declining since the late Permian. The thermal regime of the Sichuan Basin was always higher than that of the Tarim Basin, which results in differential oil and gas generation and conservation in the ultra-deep ancient strata. This study not only promotes theoretical development in the exploration of ultra-deep geothermal fields, but also plays an important role in determining the maturation phase of the ultra-deep source rocks and the occurrence state of hydrocarbons in the Tarim and Sichuan basins.  相似文献   

The Himalayan Collisional Orogeny: A Metamorphic Perspective     

WANG Jiamin  WU Fuyuan  ZHANG Jinjiang  Gautam KHANAL  YANG Lei 《《地质学报》英文版》2022,96(6):1842-1866

This paper introduces how crustal thickening controls the growth of the Himalaya by summarizing the P-T-t evolution of the Himalayan metamorphic core. The Himalayan orogeny was divided into three stages. Stage 60–40 Ma: The Himalayan crust thickened to ~40 km through Barrovian-type metamorphism (15–25 °C/km), and the Himalaya rose from <0 to ~1000 m. Stage 40–16 Ma: The crust gradually thickened to 60–70 km, resulting in abundant high-grade metamorphism and anatexis (peak-P, 15–25 °C/km; peak-T, >30 °C/km). The three sub-sheets in the Himalayan metamorphic core extruded southward sequentially through imbricate thrusts of the Eo-Himalayan thrust, High Himalayan thrust, and Main Central thrust, and the Himalaya rose to ≥5,000 m. Stage 16–0 Ma: the mountain roots underwent localized delamination, causing asthenospheric upwelling and overprinting of the lower crust by ultra-high-temperature metamorphism (30–50 °C/km), and the Himalaya reached the present elevation of ~6,000 m. Underplating and imbricate thrusting dominated the Himalaya’ growth and topographic rise, conforming to the critical taper wedge model. Localized delamination of mountain roots facilitated further topographic rise. Future Himalayan metamorphic studies should focus on extreme metamorphism and major collisional events, contact metamorphism and rare metal mineralization, metamorphic decarbonation and the carbon cycle in collisional belts.  相似文献   

地下水与地表水水量交换识别及交换量计算——以新汴河宿州段为例          下载免费PDF全文

束龙仓  宫荣  栾佳文  龚建师  陶小虎  赵贵章  陶月赞 《水科学进展》2022,33(1):57-67

为提高地下水与地表水交换量计算结果的准确性,本文利用水力联系、水头差、水温、氡-222、氢氧稳定同位素构建综合识别方法（HHTRO）,对新汴河宿州段地下水与地表水水量交换进行识别,并计算交换量。计算结果表明:研究河段单位河长地表水补给地下水的水量变化范围为8.69~366.82 m3/（d·m）,地下水补给地表水的水量变化范围为0.72~120.90 m3/（d·m）;研究河段左岸为地下水补给地表水,单位河长净补给量为45.26 m3/（d·m）;河段右岸为地表水补给地下水,单位河长净补给量为214.33 m3/（d·m）;研究河段地下水与地表水水量交换以地表水补给地下水为主,地表水补给地下水的比例为55.14%。本研究可推动地下水与地表水交换量计算方法的发展,为流域或区域水资源评价提供必要的理论方法。  相似文献   

基岩弯曲河段洪水水流结构的试验研究          下载免费PDF全文

白玉川  李彬  徐海珏  冀自青 《水科学进展》2022,33(1):102-110

低坡度基岩弯曲河流在地质构造控制区域广泛存在（床面坡度小于5‰）,洪水对基岩弯曲河流的河床淤积与侵蚀具有较大影响,但以往研究对基岩弯曲河流的洪水动力结构认识不足。通过几何概化基岩弯曲河段,考虑Froude相似与边壁粗糙,建立基岩弯曲河道概化模型,分析洪水下的弯道水面线分布、时均流场与湍流结构特性。结果表明:在洪水流量下,弯顶上游出现最小水面横比降、凸岸水流分离、凹岸双环流发育、流速下潜且二次环流强度达到最大,在弯顶下游水面横比降达到最大并出现环流分裂;床面切应力分布于凸岸水流分离以及弯顶上游中心区域,横向动量输移集中于弯顶上游。试验结果为基岩弯曲河道中的床面侵蚀与沿程淤积提供了水动力方面的解释。  相似文献